Arthur Hayes “Only 2 out of 8 market predictions last year were correct... 25% success rate"

Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, wrote on his blog that he only made 2 out of 8 market predictions last year. That's a 25% success rate, which is pretty bad for a layman. We recognize that short-term predictions are difficult. However, I am confident in the volatility supercycle theory that underpins my long-term market outlook. I've been profitable in the long run,” he said. This includes predicting banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policy. “Going forward, I predict that major central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the People's Bank of China will continue to ease monetary policy. Cryptocurrency investors should sit back, relax, and watch the fiat value of their portfolios rise.”